Catalan Poll: Comuns Lose 24% of Voters to ERC Ahead of Nov. 29 Vote

Catalan parties are fighting over each other’s voters ahead of Spain’s general election on November 29, and the latest barometer from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO, the Generalitat’s polling office) shows where those votes are moving. The biggest single shift: 24% of people who backed Comuns are now leaning toward ERC (Esquerra Republicana, the Catalan pro-independence left), according to the CEO figures reported by the Catalan daily Ara.

Pedro Sánchez called the election, and Ara reports the campaign in Catalonia is shaping up as a left against right contest, with the independence question pushed into the background.

PSC and ERC compete for the same left-wing voters

The PSC (the Catalan Socialists) and ERC govern together in the Generalitat and share power in several city councils, but they draw on overlapping voters, especially around Barcelona. The CEO data show up to 11% of Socialist voters could move to ERC, while 8% of ERC voters would pick the PSC ballot.

The Socialists plan to ask left-wing voters to back them as the safest way to keep the right and far right out of the Spanish government. ERC is counting on its candidate, Gabriel Rufián, who polls among the best-rated leaders and attracts younger left-wing voters. The PSC list is led by Jordi Hereu, a former Socialist mayor of Barcelona.

Colau’s Front Ampli against Rufián

Comuns has the least loyal voters and the steepest expected drop in the polls. It is running as Front Ampli after splitting from Podemos and failing to agree a joint list with Rufián. Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona, heads its Barcelona list and is its candidate for prime minister, with Ernest Urtasun second.

ERC instead allied with Podemos, which is not standing separately on November 29. Colau has already attacked Rufián over that deal. At his first joint rally with Montero, in Nou Barris, Rufián told supporters “The front is us”, according to Ara.

Besides the 24% heading to ERC, Comuns would lose 14% of its voters to the PSC and 19% to Podemos, per the CEO. In general elections the PSC has usually come out ahead of Comuns, except in 2015 and 2016, when the Comuns list led by Xavier Domènech won in Catalonia.

Junts and ERC after the Procés

Junts, Carles Puigdemont’s party, would lose 9% of its voters to ERC, its highest leak in a Congress election, while ERC would lose 5% to Junts. Ara notes the personal rivalry between their candidates, Míriam Nogueras and Rufián, is still there, though both parties now bargain with the central state and compete over who can show more gains from it.

Who picks up Aliança Catalana voters

Aliança Catalana, the far-right Catalan party led by Sílvia Orriols, is not running on November 29. Among its voters who plan to vote anyway, 23% lean toward Junts and 22% toward Vox, according to the CEO. Ara reports Vox has tried a more Catalanist tone in recent months to reach them.

PP sends Albiol to hold off Vox

The PP chose Xavier García Albiol, the mayor of Badalona known for hard-line statements against immigration, to lead its Barcelona list. The party hopes he can stop the 13% of its voters who, per the CEO, would now consider Vox. Vox, whose Catalan list is led by Juanjo Aizcorbe, would lose 6% of its voters to the PP.

What it means for voters in Catalonia

For residents who can vote in the general election, the CEO figures point to a campaign decided mostly inside each ideological bloc: left-wing parties chasing each other’s supporters, and Junts, Vox and the PP competing for voters on the right. The election is on November 29, and the campaign so far is in its pre-campaign phase.

Source: Ara