Poll Gives PP and Vox 192 Seats Ahead of Spain’s Nov. 29 Election
A YouGov poll for Ara gives PP and Vox 192 seats for the Nov. 29 general election. See how ERC, Junts and Sumar fare and what it means in Catalonia.
The Partido Popular (PP, Spain’s main conservative party) and the far-right Vox would win 192 seats in the Congreso de los Diputados (the lower house of parliament) if the Nov. 29 general election were held today, according to a YouGov survey published by the Catalan newspaper Ara. That is sixteen seats above an absolute majority.
Such a result would leave the next Spanish government to be settled between the PP and Vox alone. Ara wrote that election night would then be the first since 2011 without a “pactometer”, the running tally of possible coalitions that usually decides who governs.
Vox reaches a record share
The poll puts Vox at 20% of the vote. That is a historic figure for the far right, above the 15% and 52 seats the party won in November 2019. Much of the growth comes from the PP: Vox would take 16% of PP voters, which Ara estimates at more than 1.3 million people, while the PP would pull back 12% of Vox voters, about 360,000. Ara puts the net gain for Abascal’s party at 1 million votes and describes its electorate as the most loyal and the most mobilized at the moment.
PP voters have also dropped their objections to sharing power. In the survey, 82% of them approve of Vox joining a PP government and 11% are against it. The two parties already govern together in Extremadura, Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha and, most recently, Andalusia. Feijóo, the PP leader and, according to the poll, the public’s favorite for prime minister, said this week on the TV show El hormiguero that the first round of regional coalitions “was not good” but that the current one works.
The left loses ground outside the PSOE
Sumar, the junior partner in the current coalition government, now runs as a Broad Front led by Ada Colau. It would fall from the 31 seats Sumar won in 2023 to 19, with a range of 12 to 25. Podemos is aiming for one seat, but Ara reports that statistical models make no seat at all the most likely outcome. Almost 30% of people who voted for Sumar three years ago would now back the Socialist Party (PSOE).
Voters rate the Spanish government at 3.3 on a scale of 0 to 10. Ara doubts that the government’s plan to keep approving social decrees until the vote will change the trend.
What it means for Catalan parties
Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC, the left-wing pro-independence party that runs only in Catalonia) would regain the strength it had four years ago. The poll gives it more than 10 seats and, in the best case, 15, the same as in November 2019. Depending on results in some provinces, ERC could even finish ahead of Colau’s Broad Front, although Ara calls that unlikely.
Junts, the center-right pro-independence party, would keep sliding and win 4 seats, with a range of 3 to 6. This is despite Aliança Catalana, its main rival for that vote, not standing in this election. Junts candidate Miriam Nogueras told Ara she expects the polls to fall short and wants her party to be decisive again in the next parliament. A PP-Vox majority would rule that out, since the two parties would not need Catalan votes to govern.
Among other regional parties, EH Bildu would beat the PNB by 7 seats to 4, and Adelante Andalucía (4 seats), the BNG and Coalición Canaria look set to stay in Congress. Pro-sovereignty parties of the left are growing while national parties to the left of the PSOE shrink.
How the survey was done
YouGov interviewed 1,221 people aged 18 or over who live in Spain and can vote. The interviews took place online between Oct. 26 and Nov. 2, 2026. The sample was weighted by sex, age, region and recalled vote in the 2023 election. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Spain votes on Nov. 29.
Source: Ara
