Poll Puts ERC at 13 Seats in Catalonia as Vox Overtakes the PP
A YouGov poll for Ara gives ERC 13 of Catalonia's 48 seats for the Nov. 29 general election and puts Vox ahead of the PP. Seat estimates and what shifts.
ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, the pro-independence left) would almost double its seats in Catalonia at the Nov. 29 general election, going from 7 to 13, according to a YouGov survey published by the Barcelona newspaper Ara. That would leave the party three deputies behind the PSC (Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya, the Catalan Socialists), which the poll puts at 16 seats, down from 19.
On the right, Vox would climb from 2 to 6 seats and overtake the PP (Partido Popular), which would slip from 6 to 5. Junts per Catalunya (Junts), the other main pro-independence party, would fall from 7 to 4.
How Catalonia’s 48 seats would split
Left-of-centre parties would keep the same clear majority they won in 2023, with 33 of Catalonia’s 48 seats in the Congreso de los Diputados (Spain’s lower house), the survey found. The right-wing bloc of PP and Vox would grow from 8 to 11 seats, and Ara attributes that gain mainly to Junts’ losses.
The Broad Front, the left-wing list whose candidate is Ada Colau, would end up with 4 deputies. Ara notes that most polls give it fewer, so the paper does not read the figure as a disaster for the list, even though it and the PSC would each lose up to three seats.
The parties that backed Sánchez as prime minister would drop from 40 to 37 seats in Catalonia. Pro-independence parties together would rise from 14 to 17, with ERC once again ahead of Junts inside that camp.
What it means for the race in Madrid
Ara calculates that the gap between the right and Sánchez’s allies in Catalonia would narrow from -32 to -26. The paper points out that each seat the right takes there counts twice, since it is also one fewer for the other side, which gives some relief to Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s hopes of becoming prime minister with Vox’s support.
For the PSC, 16 seats would be a poor result by its own history: in 2008, with Carme Chacón as its candidate, it won 25. Ara links the losses of the Socialists and the Broad Front to the wear of several years in the Spanish government.
Why Vox and ERC are rising
Ara suggests Vox may be picking up voters from Aliança Catalana, a pro-independence party that is not running in this general election. The paper says the two share an anti-immigrant message and part of their electorate, and some of those voters may back Santiago Abascal’s party in a national vote.
Junts, the paper says, has gained nothing from first supporting Sánchez’s investiture and then voting down government decrees, including those on housing.
A strong ERC result would give Oriol Junqueras a base to challenge the PSC for leadership of the Catalan left at the next regional election. It would also strengthen Gabriel Rufián, who has had open tensions with the party leadership. Rufián and his mentor Joan Tardà favour closer ties with the Comuns and the CUP and cooperation with the Spanish left.
How the poll was done
YouGov interviewed 350 adults aged 18 and over who live in Catalonia and can vote. Interviews ran online from Oct. 26 to Nov. 2, with an extra round on Nov. 11 and 12. Results were weighted by sex, age, region and 2023 vote. The maximum margin of error is ±5.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Source: Ara
