NC Report Projects Spain’s Split Left Losing Up to 22 Seats

Spain’s left-wing parties are heading into the general election scheduled for Nov. 29 without a single joint list. According to The Local Spain, polling data from NC Report suggests the split could cost the left as many as 22 deputies compared with 2023.

The divide matters because, under Spain’s proportional representation system, running on one ticket is important for winning a governable majority, the outlet reports. Pollsters have long predicted that the right-wing bloc will win a majority.

How the snap election came about

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called the early vote after housing protests and after his housing decrees were defeated in Congress. The Local Spain describes the move as an attempt to retake the initiative and start the campaign. Some pundits said Sánchez could defy the polls, as he did in 2023.

Soon afterward it became clear that the parties to the left of his Socialists (PSOE) were not ready to run on one ticket. The recent deadly train crash in Toledo, Spain’s second of the year, added to a sense among observers that the Sánchez era is coming to an end, the outlet says.

Who joined the Broad Front, and who stayed out

The Frente Amplio (Broad Front) was assembled in September by some of the parties to Sánchez’s left, but not all of them. Sumar, the junior partner in the current coalition, joined with Izquierda Unida (IU), Más Madrid and several smaller regional parties.

Podemos, a far-left former coalition member, refused to join except on lists in the Canary Islands and the Valencia region. Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), the Catalan party, also did not sign up.

The Local Spain traces the fragmentation to ideological and geographical tensions. The left includes communists organised through IU, grassroots anti-capitalist and protest groups, green groups, and regionalist and separatist parties in places such as Catalonia and Galicia. Agreeing on a name, leader, logo or policy is difficult, and the outlet adds that ego, rivalry and ambition play a part. The right is also divided, between the centre-right PP and the far-right Vox.

What the projections show

• NC Report data points to a loss of as many as 22 deputies for the left compared with 2023.
• In some regions the bloc could disappear, and it could be reduced to nine seats overall.
• The PP and Vox would share 14 to 15 of the 22 seats the left is forecast to lose, according to the seat projections.
• Regionalist parties such as Adelante Andalucía would gain where Sumar is weak.
• The divided bloc is expected to lose out most in rural areas, where seats are fewer and do not reward parties running alone.

Source: The Local Spain